TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Scientists say they’ll soon extend life ‘well beyond 120’

174 点作者 forloop超过 10 年前

25 条评论

zw123456超过 10 年前
I too would like to live forever, but one problem I see is that if you just extend peoples physical age but their minds become frozen in time, then all progress stops. It is well known that as people age their neural plasticity degrades and they loose the ability to learn anything new. I have observed this with my Dad who is 84. If people lived to be 1000 but their neural plasticity was gone by 120, we would still have slavery, women would not be able to vote and we would still be riding around in horse and buggy. There has been a lot of speculation that progress in technology or society or both has slowed are stopped. I think if true, it is likely due to an aging population. In addition to slowing the physical aging process, there would need to also be a way to somehow maintain peoples brain function, including neural plasticity.
评论 #8870897 未加载
评论 #8870818 未加载
评论 #8871140 未加载
评论 #8870621 未加载
评论 #8871886 未加载
评论 #8871732 未加载
评论 #8870739 未加载
评论 #8870903 未加载
评论 #8870831 未加载
DanielBMarkham超过 10 年前
Blood transfusions are old and safe tech. I don&#x27;t see any reason why you couldn&#x27;t right now go into a nursing home and begin intensive transfusion therapy and see what happened. in fact, the weird thing here is that only Stanford is doing something like this.<p>Which leads me to believe that one of the real obstacles here is going to be the legalities and logistics of actually testing something and bringing it to market. If you have a cough and I give you a pill, either you stop coughing or you don&#x27;t. We have a very tight feedback loop: in the order of hours or days. But if you&#x27;re 50-years-old and want to live another ten years? We just can&#x27;t wait around for 40-year feedback loops. It simply won&#x27;t work.<p>So I&#x27;m convinced that some improvement is possible over the next decade: perhaps on the order of 10-20 extra years of life. But treatment is going to exist in a really weird grey area. You could either travel to a country with little or no drug oversight or you could try getting off-label or black market treatments. The drug approval system in the U.S. is simply not equipped to make serious decisions about medicines with these kinds of effects.<p>Sidebar: the interesting question is whether or not we&#x27;re close to the point where increases in lifespan happen faster than aging itself: have we reached the 1000-year person point? I&#x27;m almost certain the answer is no, but I think we may be within 100 years of it. My intuition is that as we keep pushing the human biological machine, it will find new and unique ways of breaking down. The most obvious example is cancer. The longer you live, the more likely you are to get cancer -- and we&#x27;re a long ways from a cure for cancer. Still, this is a very fascinating field to watch.
评论 #8870901 未加载
jeffreyrogers超过 10 年前
&gt; the probability of a 25-year-old dying before their 26th birthday is 0.1%<p>It&#x27;s probably significantly lower than that as well if you take out all the accidental deaths that occur in people&#x27;s 20s.<p>On a more skeptical note, I&#x27;m very doubtful of any claims to predict timelines related to medical or technological advances. We&#x27;ve been trying for a long time and with much better funding to cure&#x2F;treat things like AIDS and various cancers and only recently have we made significant progress on those fronts.<p>My general impression of modern medicine based on conversations with friends and family members in the medical field is that, while the cures are getting better, the best course of action is to take a conservative approach to life (avoid smoking, severely limit drinking, exercise and lift weights regularly, stay active, and keep using your brain), as this has much better odds of maintaining a high quality of life as you age than hoping modern medicine will be able to fix whatever&#x27;s wrong with you.
slashnull超过 10 年前
Fortunately, their approach seems to take into account the fact that most people&#x27;s quality of life degrade <i>very</i> steeply after hitting, say, 70, and aim to augment this &quot;quality&quot; lifespan at the same time as the &quot;total&quot; lifespan.<p>Just ask Scott Adams if he would have wanted his father to live &quot;well beyond 120&quot;.
评论 #8870860 未加载
评论 #8870782 未加载
评论 #8870550 未加载
Houshalter超过 10 年前
&gt;And someday when the descendants of humanity have spread from star to star, they won&#x27;t tell the children about the history of Ancient Earth until they&#x27;re old enough to bear it; and when they learn they&#x27;ll weep to hear that such a thing as Death had ever once existed!<p>From HPMOR.
ChuckMcM超过 10 年前
And if you thought it was hard to get hired in tech at the age of 50, wait until you try at 100 :-)<p>On a more serious note, it is going to be a huge financial disaster if folks &quot;suddenly&quot; start living to 120. There are many many things which have nominal lifespans &quot;baked in&quot; and if that changes gradually the algorithm can be adjusted gradually but if it changes suddenly, that results in insufficient money collected to pay out promised payments.<p>When you get to a certain age (varies by individual) you start talking to or consulting retirement advisors. Those advisors will ask you something like &quot;when do you want to retire?&quot; and &quot;what sort of net income do you want?&quot; and they will take your expected lifetime (say 100) and tell you when you can stop working such that paying out at that rate will exhaust your savings when you hit 100. But if you roll with that plan and at 75 get a treatment that extends your life to 120, well that is something of a problem right?
评论 #8871388 未加载
评论 #8871158 未加载
评论 #8871759 未加载
tedsanders超过 10 年前
In 1850, the average 80 year old lived to be 86 years old.<p>In 2011, the average 80 year old lived to be 89 years old.<p>[1] <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/roser/presentation/online/ImprovingHealthAroundTheWorld/ImprovingHealthAroundTheWorld.html#/Life-Expectancy-by-Age" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;roser&#x2F;presentation&#x2F;online&#x2F;Improvin...</a> (press the right arrow key for the graph to pop up)<p>[2] <a href="http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.infoplease.com&#x2F;ipa&#x2F;A0005140.html</a><p>Modern medicine has mostly benefited the young, not the old. The last 150 years of little progress makes me skeptical of claims about future life extension, though of course I&#x27;d love to be mistaken.
评论 #8871514 未加载
jqm超过 10 年前
There are so many inter-related factors involved with changing a system of this complexity. My fear is the creation of half living zombies that don&#x27;t die, but who&#x27;s brains have long since moved on. Zombies, who not incidentally, keep title to accumulated resources for very long periods of time and presumably hold office and vote.<p>This might sound bad... but as it sits right now, many people in their late 80&#x27;s - 90&#x27;s (not all I grant, but in my experience...) don&#x27;t seem to be fully alive right now. They are often kind of half in and out of reality, and not at all the people they once were. They can&#x27;t really contribute much (don&#x27;t bother posting a link about a 90 year old who did such-and-such... it&#x27;s a very glaring exception and we both know this). They take a lot of care. And, I can&#x27;t imagine this is very pleasant state to be in either.<p>If the state of aging progresses, but somehow death is forestalled, I don&#x27;t see this being any advance at all, but rather one of the nastiest things that could be done for the human race, both old and young. It seems like forestalling death without solving the problem of aging (likely a much harder problem) might be very doable soon. And it is not a good idea. There are many evolutionary reasons for death. It&#x27;s not altogether a bad thing.
EGreg超过 10 年前
Well with the plunging birth rates in developed countries, I think this would be feasible. Robots and automation would solve the economic issues of having an inverted pyramid entering the workforce. We would in a sense become long-lived rich eloi.<p>However in pockets of the world which won&#x27;t use contraception - such as religious states, or poor areas, there will be age-old issue of producing a lot of babies who go and consume the resources of the &quot;1st world&quot;. These places still exist on earth and the lives produced there are just as valuable so the ethical question would be, how would the rich countries deny the life extending medicine and procedures to others? It almost has to be a function of population growth.<p>I wanted to write a novel one day about the year 2278 when a couple of married Elders finally decides to have children and therefore forfeits their access to prolonging their life more than 50 years. The idea is that it would become one or the other.
评论 #8872016 未加载
kirse超过 10 年前
I always see anti-aging research as an expression of our inbuilt need for hope and significance (a desire to be <i>known</i> for eternity). It&#x27;s far more philosophical than scientific. Many have concluded there is no meaningful eternity, and thus they seek to construct their own hope through anti-aging research.<p>So it&#x27;s slightly ironic that the article mentions anti-aging research as needing to address a &quot;root cause&quot;, when in reality there&#x27;s a deeper spiritual need at work. And so the religion of science presses onward, simultaneously discarding all notions of spirituality while (quite obviously) answering the same fundamental philosophical questions and needs in it&#x27;s own way.
评论 #8870718 未加载
评论 #8871525 未加载
评论 #8870604 未加载
angrybits超过 10 年前
This scares the hell out of me from a retirement planning perspective. If I outlive my savings, what then?
评论 #8870685 未加载
评论 #8870748 未加载
评论 #8871044 未加载
davesque超过 10 年前
I just hope such medical advances would be available to everyone and not just a privileged few who can afford it.
评论 #8871283 未加载
评论 #8871085 未加载
评论 #8871065 未加载
评论 #8870888 未加载
reasonattlm超过 10 年前
One of the things that rarely makes it to the press is that all of these efforts are not equal in their likelihood of producing therapies that are useful for old people.<p>A good 95%+ of the funding and interest in aging at present still goes towards investigation only, no attempt or thought on therapies. The Ellison Medical Foundation fell into this category, as aging was only an incidental part of the Foundation&#x27;s plan. The point was molecular biology, and aging just happened to be one of the better fields to exercise that goal. So the EMF simply expanded some of the NIA study programs and arguably did nothing meaningful to advance progress towards therapies for aging.<p>Then 95%+ of the sliver of funding and interest that does aim to extend life goes towards things that have absolutely no hope of meaningful results. They are generally focused on trying to understand metabolism sufficiently well to slow aging slightly. An over the top ambitious goal in this area is adding seven years to life spans over the next 20 years - that&#x27;s the Longevity Dividend proposal. There is no concrete plan, nowhere near the level of understanding needed to even have a plan, and so people pick at proteins and mechanisms one by one that might be linked to calorie restriction or autophagy or other longevity-associated mechanisms. Look at the past fifteen years of very expensive and entirely fruitless sirtuin research to see how this will go over the next decade. The research community is gearing up to spend billions more on mTOR-related work, and the expectation of outcomes should be exactly the same: knowledge, but not therapies.<p>Genetics is another area of favor at the moment, but is just another facet of &quot;let&#x27;s mess with metabolism&quot; to try to find ways to slow down the accumulation of damage in this vastly complex poorly understood system. There is an argument to say that all of this focus on things that won&#x27;t really help much is in fact just a new way for researchers to draw in new funding to the established goal of mapping metabolism.<p>Since aging is damage, slowing damage is pretty useless for old people. They won&#x27;t benefit from that approach at all. If we&#x27;re going to wait around for the next few decades for treatments, I want to see rejuvenation at the end of the line instead of merely tinkering the system to damage itself more slowly. Rejuvenation means repair: if aging is damage, then rejuvenation is repairing that damage.<p>So the vast unknowns in aging are not related to the actual damage itself, but rather how the damage interacts and progresses in the highly complex apparatus of our biology. There is a very good catalog of the biochemical damage that causes aging, the direct results of the correct operation of metabolism, not caused by other forms of damage. This is the list of distinctive differences between old tissue and young tissue. That catalog was built over the past century and hasn&#x27;t been expanded since the late 1980s, so it is reasonable to think that all the important stuff for now is captured.<p>We could bypass the vast complexity of the &quot;mess with metabolism&quot; approach to slowing aging and instead try to repair the damage. This is much better as there are concrete plans for doing so, and so much is known of the damage that there are numerous very detailed proposals for producing repair therapies. If you can repair the damage then you don&#x27;t need to know how it progresses in detail from moment to moment, or which form is more important, or how exactly it causes age-related disease. Just fix it. The analogous situation is rust in an ornate, complex, load-bearing metal structure: rust is simple, the structure is complicated, so the results of rust over time will be very complicated. Do you build models and analyse the molecular progression of rust in ever more detail to figure out how to build better structures, or do you just paint the thing and rustproof it every now and again? One of those paths is clearly better than the other.<p>This is why I don&#x27;t expect great things from Calico, as Calico is funding the same mainstream approach to aging (mess with metabolism, drug discovery, try to slow aging) that will do a lot for knowledge and next to nothing for practical outcomes to extend life and rejuvenate the old. They won&#x27;t fund the right path, which is to say SENS and related repair-based approaches, until those approaches have completed their disruption of the aging research field and gathered sufficient support that no-one has to specify repair-based approaches as being their approach, because it is just assumed that that is what is meant by aging research.
评论 #8872011 未加载
adrianlmm超过 10 年前
This calls for a reform to the penitentiary system, someone condemned to life in prisson that can live 120 years will cost more to the state than someone that can live 80.<p>As always, goverment is to late to react.
stanmancan超过 10 年前
I&#x27;ve always wondered what are the implications of extending life span and curing certain diseases that kill millions every year. What happens when all the sudden everybody lives 20% longer and some of the major killers heart disease, cancer) aren&#x27;t a problem. Things like over population, resources and such.
评论 #8870633 未加载
评论 #8870609 未加载
评论 #8870677 未加载
tokenadult超过 10 年前
This is a very well reported article and I&#x27;m grateful it was submitted here for discussion. The article definitely deserves a thoughtful read from beginning to end, as it raises a lot of issues that will have to be considered as research on human aging continues. The comments here posted before this one are interesting too.<p>Having read the article and the previous comments, I&#x27;ll jump in with an observation that I&#x27;ve had so much occasion to make here on Hacker News that it is a FAQ block of text I keep off-line for posting here. What&#x27;s really amazing about fighting human aging is that even with the haphazard approach of tackling one disease at a time, humankind has already made enormous progress in increasing healthy lifespan into old age. Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100, with boys likely to enjoy lifespans almost as long. The article &quot;The Biodemography of Human Ageing&quot; by James Vaupel,[1] originally published in the journal Nature in 2010, is a good current reference on the subject. Vaupel is one of the leading scholars on the demography of aging and how to adjust for time trends in life expectancy. His striking finding is &quot;Humans are living longer than ever before. In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Starting in the mid-1800s, human longevity has increased dramatically and life expectancy is increasing by an average of six hours a day.&quot;[2]<p>An article in a series on Slate, &quot;Why Are You Not Dead Yet? Life expectancy doubled in past 150 years. Here’s why&quot;[3] Provides some of the background.<p>Life expectancy at age 40, at age 60, and at even higher ages is still rising throughout the developed countries of the world.[4]<p>You can look up websites that will take information you provide and report a personal life expectancy for you based on the information you provide.[5] You may be surprised by what you see. The online longevity calculators are based on historical cohort data and do not reflect any further progress in medicine, public health, or lifestyle improvement that may occur between now and your predicted age of death.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2860ef54d218ce5ce19abe6a59/dc_biodemography_of_human_ageing_nature_2010_vaupel.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.demographic-challenge.com&#x2F;files&#x2F;downloads&#x2F;2eb51e2...</a><p>[2] <a href="http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.aspx" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.prb.org&#x2F;Journalists&#x2F;Webcasts&#x2F;2010&#x2F;humanlongevity....</a><p>[3] <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_longevity/2013/09/life_expectancy_history_public_health_and_medical_advances_that_lead_to.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.slate.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;health_and_science&#x2F;science_of_...</a><p>[4] <a href="http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box/scientificamerican0912-54_BX1.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;scientificamerican&#x2F;journal&#x2F;v307&#x2F;n3&#x2F;box...</a><p>[5] Various life-expectancy calculators:<p><a href="http://www.livingto100.com/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.livingto100.com&#x2F;</a><p>(My calculated life expectancy a year or two ago predicted I would outlive my mother&#x27;s current age, and three of my four grandparents.)<p><a href="http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;gosset.wharton.upenn.edu&#x2F;mortality&#x2F;perl&#x2F;CalcForm.html</a><p>(My life expectancy a year or two ago as calculated by this was lower than for the website above. This website is especially cool, because it shows a confidence interval around the estimate.)
ludo150超过 10 年前
120 but to do what? Sometimes I think it&#x27;s better to have a short but intense life than a long one and do nothing because you know your life will be long.
评论 #8872544 未加载
imaginenore超过 10 年前
Please hurry up. I want to live for thousands of years.
评论 #8870517 未加载
评论 #8870571 未加载
reasonattlm超过 10 年前
Nice to see more press on the Palo Alto Longevity Prize; the whole point of the exercise is to do what they are doing very loudly.<p>Establishing a research prize is a form of investment in progress only available in the philanthropic world. At the very high level it is easy to say that philanthropists pay people to work on specific tasks. This is simple enough for smaller amounts: transfer a few thousand dollars to a research group and you have bought a very small slice of the time and equipment needed to achieve any particular goal. When we start talking about much larger amounts of money, millions or tens of millions, then there are important secondary effects that occur when making such investments. In these amounts money has gravity, money makes people talk, and money changes behavior and expectations in a far larger demographic than just the recipients. This is well known, and thus investment activities, philanthropic and otherwise, become structured to best take advantage of this halo of effects. Most of the experience in doing this comes from the for-profit world: it doesn&#x27;t take too long spent following the venture capital industry to see that investment is a lot more complicated than choosing a target and writing a check, and this is exactly because there are many secondary effects of a large investment that can be structured and harvested if investors go about it in the right way.<p>I theorize that the reason why research prizes remain comparatively rare is that firstly they are an investment strategy restricted to philanthropy, and thus people with the money to burn have little direct experience, and secondly the whole point of the exercise is not in fact paying people to do things directly, but rather creating a situation in which near all of the benefit is realized through the secondary effects generated by the highly publicized existence of a large sum of money. A research prize works by being a sort of extended publicity drive and networking event conducted over a span of years, a beacon to draw attention to teams laboring in obscurity, attract new teams, and raise their odds of obtaining funding. Connections are made and newly invigorated initiatives run beneath the light of a large sum of prize money, but at the end of the day that money becomes more or less irrelevant. It wasn&#x27;t the important thing, it was merely the ignition point for a much greater blaze of investment and publicity. By the time a team wins, they are typically in a position to raise far more funding than the prize amount provides.<p>The ideal end result is that a field of science and technology is rejuvenated, taken from obscurity and thrust into the public eye, made attractive to investors, and numerous groups are given the attention and funding they need to carry on independently. This is how it worked for the Ansari X Prize for suborbital flight, and more quietly, for the Mprize for longevity science: in both cases the entire field changed as a result of the existence of the prize and the efforts of the prize organization to draw attention, change minds, and build new networks. But the award of money wasn&#x27;t the transformative act, and in fact that award didn&#x27;t really occur at all for the Mprize, but rather change was created through the sum of all of the surrounding effects.<p>So consider this: people who arrive at the state of being wealthy and wanting to change the world through philanthropy, often after decades of for-profit investment participation, don&#x27;t have much in the way of comparable experience to guide them in the establishment and operation of research prizes. Thus creation of a research prize falls low in the list of strategies under consideration by high net worth philanthropists. Few people do it, and so there are few examples from which others can learn. It is the standard vicious circle of development, in which steady, grinding bootstrapping is the only way to create change.<p>Why care? Because research prizes work well. They work exceedingly well. Depending on how you care to plug numbers into equations, a well-run prize of $10 million will generate $150 to $500 million in investment in an industry, and that is just the easily measured result. Just as important is the following change and growth enabled by that initial burst of attention and funding. The Ansari X Prize spawned a number of other prizes in various industries, but I think it remains the case that medicine and biotechnology is poorly served in this respect. Outside of the efforts of the X Prize Foundation, the New Organ prizes, and other independent efforts such as the Palo Alto Longevity Prize, there is little going on. Given the proven utility of prizes there should be many more of them, and yet there are not.
egsec超过 10 年前
Finally, we will be old enough to rent &quot;ultraporn&quot; (160+ years old). [1][2]<p>[1][<a href="http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Futurama" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikiquote.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Futurama</a>] [2][<a href="http://futurama.wikia.com/wiki/Hubert_J._Farnsworth" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;futurama.wikia.com&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hubert_J._Farnsworth</a>]
biomimic超过 10 年前
If we extend life to 120 it buys us more time to go for 150, then that buys us more time to go for 300 etc.
评论 #8871415 未加载
kiteglue超过 10 年前
What about an invulnerable no form factor with beyond-time communications.
elorant超过 10 年前
I don’t want just to live longer, I want to live longer while in a relatively good shape. Because if we are to live 30 years more with the physique of a 90 year old man then what’s the point. If on the other hand I could have the physique of a 70 year old man while I’m 100+ that sounds like a good deal.
评论 #8871305 未加载
评论 #8871063 未加载
eagsalazar2超过 10 年前
I can&#x27;t believe no one thinks this is a terrible idea. Of course <i>I</i>, selfishly, would love to live longer but doing so on a large scale is almost guaranteed to be a disaster.<p>While we&#x27;re at it why don&#x27;t we just solve aging, provide infinite food supply, and eliminate predation for deer. That would be a great idea right? No way that would have any negative side effects, right?
评论 #8871022 未加载
评论 #8870689 未加载
评论 #8870709 未加载
评论 #8870982 未加载
评论 #8871345 未加载
spopejoy超过 10 年前
<i>Larry Ellison, co-founder of computer company Oracle, told his biographer Mark Wilson. “How can a person be there and then just vanish, just not be there?”</i><p>Succinct summary of the vapid naivete of zillionaires who can&#x27;t incorporate death into their &quot;but I&#x27;ve gotten everything <i>else</i> I want&quot; mindset.<p>I applaud the research. But I don&#x27;t mind a finite life. Death is part of the cycle that has nourished our planet from the beginning. There are definitely a host of unintended consequences we&#x27;ll face when it&#x27;s only poor folks who die &quot;young&quot;.<p>Look at the bright side: future generations can enjoy a world without Larry!
评论 #8871655 未加载