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Netflix Long Term View

313 点作者 _pius超过 10 年前

36 条评论

ctdonath超过 10 年前
This is a huge shift for Netflix.<p>Until recently, the motivating impression was that Netflix just plain had every movie out there (which its continuing DVD service kinda does). I subscribed because it was a cheap replacement for buying anything I wanted to see: they had everything I wanted and could want. My to-watch list was very long, and I thought it would remain.<p>Now, studios and competitors are making that model untenable. Netflix can&#x27;t carry _everything_ because studios&#x2F;distributors want an ever-larger cut of the profits, and competitors are willing to pay for exclusivity. Suddenly, I find large sections of my to-watch list disappearing off Netflix as contracts expire and don&#x27;t renew (the biggest blow was when &quot;Toys&quot; disappeared - something old &amp; obscure enough that I thought surely they&#x27;d manage to keep <i>that</i> license).<p>Netflix just pivoted.<p>They&#x27;re no longer the long-promised &quot;long tail&quot; of movies, hosting all but the latest &amp; biggest (yeah, I&#x27;m willing to pay extra individually for those). They just gave up on that model.<p>Now they&#x27;re becoming a &quot;channel&quot; focused on hosting a curated collection, including their own productions.<p>That&#x27;s a big shift.
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rogerbinns超过 10 年前
Am I the only one who finds finding something on Netflix to watch increasingly difficult, and contradictory to what they say in that piece. My experience is mostly using Roku (a spinoff from Netflix) and Android.<p>For example if I watch a WWII documentary, then they feel the need to recommend every one they have, for a long time. Oh and &quot;watch&quot; means &quot;seen more than a second or two of&quot;, so you get all this crud even if you didn&#x27;t like it.<p>Perhaps the biggest sin is showing me stuff I have already watched, outside of the &quot;watch again section&quot;. My home screen is mostly things I have seen, and I have to keep scrolling past to see if there is anything interesting deeper in the sections.<p>It is especially annoying that there is no &quot;do not show this again&quot;. My home screen is a collection of content I have already seen, or do not want to see. It makes Netflix look dumb and is very user hostile.<p>Most amusing is that they don&#x27;t provide a way of finding content that you want to watch now. For example you would like to watch something funny and light for the next half hour, or a date night movie. Sometimes those categories randomly show up on the screen, but usually not.<p>I&#x27;d go on, but the overall vibe is a very dumb experience of recommendations that I don&#x27;t want, no useful content exploration, and it feels like I watch stuff despite them, rather than because of them. Maybe I should cancel my account again.
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solutionyogi超过 10 年前
<i>Winning moments of truth</i><p>We strive to win more of our members’ “moments of truth”.<p>Those decision points are, say, at 7:15 pm when a member wants to relax, enjoy a shared experience with friends and family, or is bored.<p>They could play a video game, surf the web, read a magazine, channel surf their MVPD&#x2F;DVR system, buy a pay-per-view movie, put on a DVD, use a piracy service, turn on Hulu, or launch Netflix.<p>We want our members to choose Netflix in these moments of truth.<p>---------------------------------------------------<p>This nails it. When I get home (especially if I had a long day at work), I first go to Netflix and see what&#x27;s on my list. This is because Netflix app is beautiful, it always works and they have my list of things to watch. As someone who loves to watch documentaries, I am happy with the selection that Netflix offers.<p>If I don&#x27;t like anything on the list, I just watch an old Friends or Breaking Bad episode.<p>I think Netflix has absolutely nailed the user experience and depending on your taste&#x2F;location, their selection is great as well.
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jader201超过 10 年前
Maybe it&#x27;s just me. But one thing about linear (live) broadcasts -- and this also applies to an extent to live radio vs. mp3&#x27;s -- is that there is just something engaging about watching a program that you know other people, at that moment, are also watching.<p>It&#x27;s also missed when watching a show that you DVR&#x27;ed, after the fact -- like the series finale to Lost, or the Super Bowl.<p>If&#x2F;when live broadcasts are completely a thing of the past, I think this sense of engagement will be lost forever, and people won&#x27;t even realize what they&#x27;re missing out on.<p>In a way, it&#x27;s sort of like watching someone play a video game live on Twitch vs. watching it on Youtube.<p>Does anyone else know and also feel this sense I&#x27;m talking about?
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donpdonp超过 10 年前
This is a great write-up and a wonderful precedent for netflix to set. That being said, I feel the post is mostly promises, as Netflix is in the middle of another year-long &#x27;content desert&#x27;. I cant remember the last time I got excited about The Matrix or Iron Man coming back into the queue.<p>My process is to check <a href="http://instantwatcher.com/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;instantwatcher.com&#x2F;</a> and then go to netflix. The thing is I&#x27;ve been disappointed by whats at the top of the charts for so long, I&#x27;ve considered dropping netflix. The top 50 is uninteresting sounding documentaries, low budget horror, and everything else that rounds out the discount DVD bin at the grocery store. Netflix excells at one thing - Television.<p>I get that its likely not Netflix&#x27;s fault. The cut for movie studios each month from an $8 subscription cant be very much. I feel Amazon&#x27;s pay-to-play model is more realistic, though less consumer friendly. I remember the deal announced last year of netflix getting first run Disney flicks (starting in 2015 I think?) and thats exiting, but the daily reality of netflix besides TV is the entertainment equivalent of hot, soupy gruel.
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mc32超过 10 年前
One of the things they bring up, which is that apps are replacing channels, annoys me. I&#x27;d rather do a global search and then present me with delivery media (channels&#x2F;apps&#x2F;whatever) instead of having to pick the app and then do individual searches. It&#x27;s a pain point.<p>Also, if they want to capture the hotel market, I mean people on the road staying in temp accommodation, they&#x27;ll have to deliver blue content (or yellow as they say in Asia). People on the road want pornographic content, more so than at home. Their current most likely option is to get it at high markup via hotel operator delivery systems.
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sandworm超过 10 年前
My family uses netflix. I don&#x27;t. Every time I want to watch something I cannot find it. 10,000 titles is nothing in a world where The Simpsons has several hundred. Netflix needs more and deeper content.<p>I won&#x27;t admit to ever downloading something without full written permission of the copyright holder, carved in stone and witnessed by three saints, but last night I did watch &quot;Black Books&quot; after not finding it on Netflix or any other service.<p>(If you are a fan of &#x27;Father Ted&#x27; or &#x27;The IT Crowd&#x27;, Black Books was done by the same people and contains many of the same jokes.)
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yazaddaruvala超过 10 年前
If someone from Netflix is reading:<p>&gt; We win those moments of truth when members expect Netflix to be more pleasurable than their other options<p>Can you please make it easier for me to find my &quot;Recently Watched&quot; TV Shows? That would definitely make my experience &quot;more pleasurable&quot;.<p>Also, please stop showing me movies I&#x27;ve already rated. I&#x27;ve seen those. Just show those to me in the &quot;watch again&quot; list.<p>Platform: Website
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spike021超过 10 年前
I personally don&#x27;t really like the setup Netflix uses as much UI-wise. It seems as though nowadays services need to be all about personalization, where ratings, reviews, and content watched all factor into the new content that is shown to me, the user. I might only like one movie or tv show of a particular genre, give it 4 or 5 stars, and then there&#x27;s a pretty good chance I&#x27;ll keep being shown similar ones that I know I&#x27;ll never be interested in watching.<p>For myself, I think it would work really well if they had the more standard list of available shows, movies, etc in alphabetical order, or some other more sortable format, perhaps by release&#x2F;airing year, or similar.
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drawkbox超过 10 年前
<i>Eventually, as linear TV is viewed less, the spectrum it now uses on cable, fiber, and over-the-air will be reallocated to expand Internet data transmission. Satellite TV subscribers will be fewer and more rural. The value of high-speed Internet will increase.</i><p>This is something that has always bothered me, internet bandwidth only takes up a small amount of spectrum in place of channels and the cable companies could cut lots of channels and improve broadband dramatically. The days of someone dictating what you watch and at what time are over, why all the spectrum hoarding.<p>Even when I got my first broadband cable connection, one of the first on the node in Chandler in 1996, the cable guy said it only used the space of 2 channels for internet data and the rest for broadcast&#x2F;cable channels.
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arianvanp超过 10 年前
Must be hard for netflix sometimes.<p>Here in The Netherlands for the past 5 months only Lord of the Rings part 1 and part 3 have been available due to licensing issues or something. I&#x27;ve called customer support a few times and they keep saying &quot; We&#x27;re working on it. but we have issues obtaining the license&quot;. Seriously. How can a studio only license Part one and three? This stuff makes me mad.<p>Contacted customer support for the last time today and the person I talked to once again told me the same thing but then surprisingly started openly ranting about &quot;How te studios can be such a pain when we ask them to renew licenses. And that it&#x27;s diffucult not to get in trouble with them&quot;.<p>Anyhow. they&#x27;ll personally contact me once they have fixed the license again. That&#x27;s some nice customer support right there.<p>Quite saddening to see studios stand in the way of a solid product. I just want to watch my darn triology on friday evening.
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ForHackernews超过 10 年前
&gt; As we’ve gained experience, we’ve found that the 20th documentary about bicycling will mostly just take away viewing from the other 19 such docs, and instead of trying to have everything, we should strive to have the best in each category. As such, we are actively curating our service rather than carrying as many titles as we can.<p>This sounds like a bad move to me. Maybe carrying a huge breadth of content is a good way to attract new users, but unless they have <i>depth</i> of content, they aren&#x27;t going to hold onto those users. Most people aren&#x27;t that eclectic in their tastes, so if you only have one film in each category (even if it&#x27;s the &quot;best&quot; one) people are going to drop them after they&#x27;ve watched everything they like.<p>Put another way, bicycling-documentary fanatics aren&#x27;t going to keep paying $8&#x2F;month indefinitely for access to one great biking doc.
vasilipupkin超过 10 年前
What confuses me is this: Why doesn&#x27;t Netflix allow me to pay a little bit more, as an option, and, in exchange, have every single movie available to watch online? I mean, sure, they can produce their own shows, but only some of them will be good. So why limit content so much? I pretty much stopped using Netflix, instead I go to Amazon Instant Video<p>I may be missing something, but strategy of producing original content, while limiting the catalog, doesn&#x27;t make sense. Why not have infinitely large online catalog AND produce original shows?
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danso超过 10 年前
OK, a little OT and minuscule, but kind of gels with in with Netflix&#x27;s overall future...has anyone else noticed that Netflix&#x27;s predicted ratings seem to be a bit inflated, since perhaps last year? For previous years, I could count the number with one hand of movies&#x2F;TV-shows that Netflix rated more than a 4-star for me...now there are dozens and dozens of things that Netflix thinks I would give a perfect rating to.<p>Maybe it&#x27;s because I&#x27;ve become less discerning or have unconsciously changed in the way I rate things...but I don&#x27;t think so...it used to be that anything predicted to be 4-stars or above --which was very rare -- was indeed something that I would love. Now I&#x27;m seeing many preemptive 4.8 to 5-star ratings for things that I <i>know</i> I don&#x27;t like (because I&#x27;ve seen them before).<p>(I think we can agree that the effect of seeing more high-rated content is not the result of Netflix actually getting more quality content...the number of good movies has remained constant or gone down, especially since the Starz day)<p>The cynical user in me thinks Netflix has tweaked its algorithm to encourage me to watch more things. However, at least they don&#x27;t seem to have tweaked it in favor of their exclusive content, as none of those (such as Marco Polo) are predicted to rate highly with me.
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mxfh超过 10 年前
Can someone tell me how geo-fencing within the EU is still a thing to stay when one of the EU&#x27;s main digital agenda goals is to establish a digital single market market?<p><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/our-goals/pillar-i-digital-single-market" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ec.europa.eu&#x2F;digital-agenda&#x2F;en&#x2F;our-goals&#x2F;pillar-i-di...</a><p>[Edit] Some sources:<p>Geographical Restrictions, (and different pricing) for digital goods within the EU are clearly discriminatory against the customer. As stated here:<p><a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/documents/imco/dv/ppt_descrimination_consumers_/ppt_descrimination_consumers_en.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.europarl.europa.eu&#x2F;meetdocs&#x2F;2014_2019&#x2F;documents&#x2F;i...</a><p><i>Under intellectual property law, right holders may geographically restrict licenses. Therefore intellectual property law allows businesses to compartmentalise the market. Restrictions of passive sale are contrary to the consumers’ freedom of access to goods and services on the DSM, and are not permitted under European law.<p>Prohibiting geographical restrictions would not require fundamental changes to the international system of intellectual property rights. It would simply ensure that all licences granted for the territory of one Member State are valid for the whole territory of the EU. The tendency to market compartmentalisation is inherent to territorially restricted IP rights.</i><p><a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/etudes/join/2013/507456/IPOL-IMCO_ET(2013)507456_EN.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.europarl.europa.eu&#x2F;RegData&#x2F;etudes&#x2F;etudes&#x2F;join&#x2F;201...</a>
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ebbv超过 10 年前
&gt; As such, we are actively curating our service rather than carrying as many titles as we can.<p>I hope this is true. Because the quality of content that has been added to Netflix over the past year has mostly been god awful. A lot of the movies that have been added are not even D-grade quality. They are straight to video dreck.<p>On top of the bad movies there&#x27;s been reams and reams of awful reality shows as well.<p>When I first signed up for Netflix they had full libraries of HBO and Showtime shows. NBC shows. Movies that people actually went to see in theaters.<p>I understand that having HBO and Showtime&#x27;s libraries is going to be hard now that those companies are pursuing their own subscription services. But that doesn&#x27;t mean Netflix needs to resort to the crap it&#x27;s been adding lately.<p>Honestly, if things don&#x27;t improve in 2015 there&#x27;s a good chance I&#x27;ll cancel my Netflix subscription.
guiomie超过 10 年前
&quot;we should strive to have the best in each category&quot; ... this is certainly not happening in Canada.
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throwaway420超过 10 年前
Netflix employs many smarter business people than me that operate with a lot more information, so my opinion may be completely incorrect, but I&#x27;ve always thought that they erred by being scared off of the criticism they got when they increased their pricing a tiny bit. Less than ten dollars a month is an incredible bargain for the vast number of hours of content that they provide. Netflix should double, triple, or quadruple their price and get themselves in financial position to meet the demands of all of the studios going forward for all of their content.<p>You can&#x27;t do that if you&#x27;re pricing yourself out of that game though. I want to pay Netflix more money for a catalog that has virtually every movie&#x2F;tv show ever. But that&#x27;s just me.
zanny超过 10 年前
Just a tangent, but the 600m for advertising and 500m for product development is not a Netflix only thing, but it always pisses me off so much to read it.<p>That first number, the bigger number, is a black hole. Advertising is the worst, with its only competitor in my book being the legal system, industry in the industrialized world. It produces nothing of value, because all it tries to do it move money from predisposed destinations to the advertisers. It is buying market share, without making anything with the money. The later is actual productivity, goods and services people can use and want and experience and benefit from.<p>I&#x27;d go into another tangent about how advertisings size is out of control and it only gets worse due to how people are getting poorer on average (less money per individual) while wealth concentrates in the rich (ie, those that would own a company like Netflix) which means that when you rake in huge profits and a big money pot, what do you spend it on? Making goods and services is pointless if there is no money left in the market to explore your products and buy new things. Instead you throw those profits into advertising, into a non-productive discipline whose only job is to manipulate people into giving you money they would have spent elsewhere. But this post is already long enough that nobody is going to read it anyway!<p>What a colossal waste, everywhere advertising happens. And it is only on track to get worse.
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schnevets超过 10 年前
I wonder if Netflix is preparing to offer services to studios&#x2F;businesses as a contingency plan. Their infrastructure seems to be amazing, especially compared to the bug-riddled Hulus and Crackles of the world. I don&#x27;t have cable, so I&#x27;m not sure how it compares to HBO Go and other studio-centric sites, but it can&#x27;t be easy to maintain those kinds of services. Maybe we&#x27;ll see a future where studios leverage Netflix&#x27;s cloud, but offer their own distribution&#x2F;revenue schemes?
bluebook超过 10 年前
This was interesting positioning from Netflix: We don’t and can’t compete on breadth of entertainment with Comcast, Sky, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, or Google. For us to be hugely successful we have to be a focused passion brand. Starbucks, not 7-Eleven. Southwest, not United. HBO, not Dish.<p>Netflix is phasing out its DVD business over the next couple of years to focus on domestic and international streaming. International is where penetration is pretty low and they&#x27;re targeting 15-16% penetration of broadband households over five years from its current 3%.<p>In the last few quarters they&#x27;ve outperformed their own subscriber growth forecasts on the international side with country launches in France, Germany underway. The share price has jumped each time. Other markets they are likely to cover Italy, Spain, OZ &amp; NZ. Massive markets like India, China, Russia and Japan really unlikely for the medium term at least with piracy, strong local incumbents and lower purchasing power.<p>It&#x27;s just made $270m in profits in December 2014, after 10 years of losses from IPO to 2012 and secured a $500m loan with $1.1 billion cash so it is only now becoming financially sustainable. I assume they are getting better at creating own original content and thought Marco Polo was pretty good, might be on my own there though. I think the future is bright though opening in each new country and having to license content in them way in advance means lots of upfront costs in unfamilar locations. Should be a long slog but they&#x27;re on the right track as a focused, passion brand.
Malic超过 10 年前
&quot;long-term-view.cfm&quot;!? Cold Fusion? That&#x27;s still a thing?!
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kriro超过 10 年前
Interesting read. I think they are slightly underestimating Amazon as a competitor. They mention them but from my point of view the edge that Netflix has is good engineering (including usability) and being attractive to good engineers. A somewhat random small, recent example is the fact that they were at reactconf, talking about interesting stuff (targeting non-DOM) and showing involvement in &quot;hot&quot; technology.<p>That&#x27;s an edge that HBO has a really hard time catching up to but Amazon doesn&#x27;t. I think Netflix is putting a bit too much focus on the content side. It also reads a bit like they&#x27;ll shift a bit more from customer to business partner focus which may or may not be a good idea.
Yen超过 10 年前
The thing I find most interesting is their strategic take on piracy - they recognize it as a competitor. When a &#x27;moment of truth&#x27; rolls around, it&#x27;s an option potential customers might choose, depending on content available and user experience.<p>They dive into detail on the &#x27;competitors-for-content&#x27; category, with whom they could compete both on the available content and user experience fronts. On the other hand, the only advantage they can eke out over piracy is in the user experience.
cheriot超过 10 年前
I&#x27;m building lazyfan[1] precisely because of how fragmented availability has become. Even when you want to pay to stream a specific movie, it might be available from iTunes, but not Amazon or vice versa. But you don&#x27;t want to pay for something you have so you have to check Netflix or Amazon Prime.<p>Forget comparison shopping, it&#x27;s tough to even know what&#x27;s for sale.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.lazyfan.com" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.lazyfan.com</a> (beta)(a movie trailer autoplays)
Poiesis超过 10 年前
Given their example scenario (&quot;moment of truth&quot;), I&#x27;m far more likely to just buy an episode of something for a few bucks on iTunes. That way I have a much better chance of finding what I&#x27;m looking for, and I can watch something current if I want.<p>I&#x27;d prefer a subscription, and I don&#x27;t really care to <i>own</i> a random episode, but if I was watching so many shows that the money would be an issue, I would have a cable subscription (I don&#x27;t).
Shivetya超过 10 年前
I am amazed at the dollar amounts the give. I never expected it to so much to market such a service. The technology side I could see, expanding their reach and such.
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4ydx超过 10 年前
Man this transition feels like it is going to take my lifetime. Years ago it felt like an internet based on demand (+cheap) option should have been available. It is a simple thing to fantasize about but a difficult thing to realize it seems. For me personally the price point still feels too high given that I never get to own any content.
dude_abides超过 10 年前
My attempt at a tl;dr:<p>We cannot afford to license all content from all studios (and compete with Comcast&#x2F;AT&amp;T etc), so instead we will spend 5b trying to create our own content (and compete with HBO instead).<p>Oh and we will be spending half a billion on marketing.<p>(did I misread)
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merrua超过 10 年前
Netflix europe has terrible descriptions of the films&#x2F;shows which you may as well ignore. Also their catalog really isn&#x27;t that impressive. It would be rather easy to replace it if anyone tried.
princetontiger超过 10 年前
I interviewed here, and it was by far among some of the best group of people I&#x27;ve ever met.<p>I think some of the HR people are a bit rough, but the teams that contribute to the bottom line are top notch.
Igglyboo超过 10 年前
I wonder when they are going to close down their DVD division.
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yalogin超过 10 年前
Why are people raving about this? It has no new information and sounds like a marketing release. What am I missing?
forrestthewoods超过 10 年前
I wonder how long until they stop their DVD shipping side business.
throwaway150219超过 10 年前
So, what is happening faster:<p>1) Deployment of AFFORDABLE highspeed broadband<p>or<p>2) Decreasing local storage costs<p>Why do I need to stream something if I can store 6TB of data locally for less than $150 (and decreasing daily).<p>How much storage space will $200 buy you in 10 years? And how many decades of video and audio could one store on such a device?
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Touche超过 10 年前
Can someone tldr; this?