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Venture Capital in the 1980s

78 点作者 theyeti大约 10 年前

7 条评论

JacobAldridge大约 10 年前
Worth the read - really picks up in terms of relevance towards the end.<p><i>&quot;Technical risk [betting on new technology working] is horrible for returns, so VCs do not take technical risk...Market risk [betting that a new market will emerge], on the other hand, is directly correlated to VC returns.<p>&quot;[T]he only thing VCs can control that will improve their outcomes is having enough guts to bet on markets that don’t yet exist. Everything else is noise.<p>&quot;The 1990s are not our map, the 1980s are. Don’t worry about irrational exuberance fueling a bubble, that is not what is happening. Worry about fear of risk.&quot;</i><p>Having worked with hundreds of private enterprises (so much smaller visions), I&#x27;ve seen this play out. The owners that take risks achieve growth (and some implode or explode). The ones who don&#x27;t take risks either buy themselves a job, or die with a whimper.<p>I&#x27;ll often suggest my potential clients go online and take a Risk Indicator test my team developed. Many won&#x27;t even risk the $40 that costs (let along my coaching fees), which is a good sign they wouldn&#x27;t get an ROI on investing in my team anyway.<p>The more of a macro view I take on businesses of all sizes, the more relevant I see the Risk discussion. Really enjoyed this piece for examining it in a field where I have less experience.
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Taniwha大约 10 年前
I moved to the valley in &#x27;84 and worked for startups for 20 years ..... the main big difference pre-dotcom boom was very simple: a rule of thumb that you couldn&#x27;t go public without 5 consecutive quarters of profit (dare I say increasing profit) .... imagine that
Animats大约 10 年前
The VC industry as a whole was profitable from the late 1970s to 2001 or so. In the first dot-com crash, it tanked. It didn&#x27;t come back to profitability by, at least, 2011. Too many companies were being VC-funded too far into their growth period, rather than going public.<p>Most VC funds have a 10-year life, so profitability data runs some years behind.
dbarlett大约 10 年前
Previously: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8908463" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=8908463</a>
elmar大约 10 年前
&quot;the only thing VCs can control that will improve their outcomes is having enough guts to bet on markets that don’t yet exist. Everything else is noise.&quot;<p>Priceless.
brudgers大约 10 年前
It is an error to mention Microsoft in the context of Venture Capital backed firms except as a point of comparison. Microsoft was not VC funded. That&#x27;s one reason why its IPO made the world&#x27;s richest person and created 10,000+ millionaires. It is also what allowed Gates and Ballmer to retain enough shares to act for the long term and ignore Wall Street&#x27;s quarterly horizon for over 25 years.
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michaelochurch大约 10 年前
Excellent read. I&#x27;m just going to comment on one thing:<p><i>The typical venture-capital concerns used to provide money only after a few hundred thousand dollars or more had been put into a business by relatives and principals, and only after the company had a product well along in development.</i><p>One of the major differences between then and now is that normal people could actually save money, because the two-decade (or longer?) Boomer&#x2F;NIMBY-created housing bubble hadn&#x27;t happened yet. Bootstrapping was possible, and it was a negative signal if an entrepreneur hadn&#x27;t put, at the very least, $10,000 of his own money in the show.<p>In 2015, the it-gets-VC-or-doesn&#x27;t-happen attitude may seem degenerate, but it&#x27;s a necessity given that it&#x27;s no longer normal (but rather extraordinary) for a 30-year-old programmer to have a six-figure net worth, thanks to Boomer-created housing and health insurance costs.
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