This is a good analysis reaching a solid conclusion. The author is quite correct that the world cannot support billions of cars using long-range Lithium-based batteries. However, it probably will not need to.<p>First: most cars are used for urban journeys, and most urban journeys are relatively short-range (roughly 12km in the US; half that in Europe). You could have a vehicle with a 30km range and it would suffice for >95% of your travel needs. Hydrocarbon fuels, with their high energy densities, made range a secondary design consideration -- there was little downside to designing for the 99.9th percentile of use cases. But range is fundamentally more costly in battery-based vehicles, which changes the design logic. I expect both users and the industry to recognise that it's better to design for the 95th percentile of use-cases, and rent larger vehicles for the rest.<p>Second: infrastructure will be developed which mitigates/eliminates range concerns. Things like in-road inductive charging on motorways would make intercity travel possible even on a tiny battery.<p>Third: In contrast to most of the 20th century, in the 21st century, cities are becoming denser and more walkable, public transport is generally becoming better, and younger generations are less enamoured with the car than they used to be. These trends don't look to reverse anytime soon.<p>Fourth: Cars which require drivers spend > 95% of their lives parked. Vehicles which <i>don't</i> require drivers can provide taxi-like on-demand personal transport -- but as a public mode, for a fraction of the price of an actual taxi -- and they can be in essentially continuous service. Depending on the nature of the demand patterns and consumer acceptance of ride-sharing, one Robotaxi can do the job of 20-40 cars. Given the cost and convenience of such a transport system, it can be reasonably assumed that many people would forego private car ownership altogether, and rely on Robotaxis exclusively. While this wouldn't take cars <i>off the road</i> per se, it would certainly reduce vehicle sales dramatically (while rendering parking lots anachronistic).<p>I expect that these trends, over the next 30-40 years, will produce a roughly 20-fold reduction in car ownership in the developed world. This will be offset somewhat by still-rising car ownership in the developing world, but the bottom line is that the industry is likely to shrink down to a size which the earth's lithium supply can handle.