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Why Energy Storage Is About to Get Big – And Cheap

241 点作者 darklighter3大约 10 年前

21 条评论

beat大约 10 年前
One of the best things about the solar&#x2F;wind + storage combination is that it&#x27;s decentralized and cheap at small scale. This makes serious electrification of remote and impoverished places viable. It reminds me of the wildfire spread of cell service in places that didn&#x27;t have phones before, only on a larger and more important scale. Give a village cheap electricity, and awesome things will happen.<p>This gets to another point that bugs me in these discussions... the pushback against wind&#x2F;solar dominance by the pro-nuclear crowd. Insisting that nuclear power is the right way to go is western-centric. It&#x27;s fine for the US, Europe, Japan, and other advanced nations that have the infrastructure to support it. But is it a solution for Peru? For Somalia? Of course not. Wind&#x2F;solar&#x2F;storage, on the other hand, is totally viable as a solution for even the poorest nations. This alone is an argument for solar over nuclear.
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api大约 10 年前
If we do get cheap scalable energy storage, it&#x27;s pretty much game over (in the long run) for everything but solar and wind. We are basically drenched in free energy, but we can&#x27;t store it cheaply enough. If that&#x27;s fixed, we&#x27;re done here.<p>Nuclear fission may still have on-paper advantages in some markets&#x2F;climates, but the high PITA (pain in the aXX) factor would probably mean we wouldn&#x27;t bother going there. We&#x27;d just build transmission lines, more solar&#x2F;wind, and more storage even if it were marginally more expensive just to avoid the headaches of nuclear energy.
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greggyb大约 10 年前
If there&#x27;s a legitimate arbitrage opportunity for individual homeowners to buy a battery and charge it overnight to cover peak costs, there should be an even stronger case for energy companies to buy larger batteries, install them in low-land-cost areas, and do the thing themselves. If these peak plants are so expensive, then a major utility can save money using batteries rather than peak plants.<p>The cost should be lower for a utility to do this than for individual homeowners to do so for equal capacities.<p>So I ask are we seeing this behavior?<p>On a slightly different note, it doesn&#x27;t seem that the article is addressing vehicles. Battery powered cars are not yet practical enough for the mainstream, and aircraft are still entirely dependent on the energy density of hydrocarbon fuels.<p>I could see batteries becoming feasible for cars &quot;soon&quot; with the current rate of advance, but charging stations don&#x27;t make sense to me. You want easily accessed battery packs in cars and battery-swap stations. This is a huge infrastructure change, but for out-of-city travel (i.e. a trip where you would need to charge before you get to your destination), you want the equivalent of a gas station, which is 1-10 minutes for a stop, not 45+.<p>As for aircraft, I don&#x27;t see them using batteries soon.
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URSpider94大约 10 年前
One problem that will surface is that the cost of our transmission infrastructure will have to be covered, one way or the other. Currently, with net metering, customers are able to arbitrage power at the retail price, while effectively making use of the grid for both pushing and pulling load. This would be like flying a round-trip from San Jose to Tokyo and back to SFO, and claiming that you only owe the airline for the Caltrain fare up the peninsula.<p>The other issue is that our current infrastructure isn&#x27;t designed for peer-to-peer transmission, with neighborhoods pumping large amounts of power into the transmission lines during peak solar hours. Some areas of Hawaii have had to put a moratorium on installing rooftop solar to prevent potential damage to the branch circuits.<p>Long story short, it&#x27;s not simply a matter of storage costs undercutting retail power costs, there are also maintenance costs for the grid that are invariant on demand, which will have to get paid one way or the other.
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cwal37大约 10 年前
It stands out to me that pumped storage only gets a passing mention. We&#x27;ve had that as a proven energy storage technology for decades. People in the industry love to talk about it and file FERC applications for preliminary permits on the same sites over and over (I would know, I&#x27;ve had to read nearly all of them over the last year at work), but it&#x27;s never deployed at the scale people expected.<p>It&#x27;ll be interesting to see if if PSH ever really takes off, or if it really does get left in the dust by batteries and other things.
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IanDrake大约 10 年前
&gt;This leads to what seems to be a paradoxical situation. A battery that is more expensive than the average price of grid electricity can nonetheless arbitrage the grid and save one money. That’s math.<p>Missing in the math is logic. If enough people do this, the price will even out and the arbitrage opportunity will vanish.<p>It&#x27;s like an arbitrage trading a model that makes money when paper trading but loses money when live because the effects of live trades on the market wasn&#x27;t considered.
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fennecfoxen大约 10 年前
The other reason energy storage could get big in the next several years is an elevated risk of blackouts due to aggressive retirement of coal-fired power plants -- blackouts like the one in Washington last week that shut down several government agencies (e.g. the <i>Department of Energy</i>) and which was probably related to the shutdown of the Potomac River Generating Station.
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mathgeek大约 10 年前
One thing that kept coming to mind while reading all of this article&#x27;s details on different methods for storing and selling and buying power at the peaks and valley of pricing was this:<p>Electricity in our homes is so widespread and popular because it just works. We don&#x27;t need to think short-term about how or when we use it (although we should and can if you want to). You flip a switch, the light comes on, and you flip the switch again when you&#x27;re done.<p>In my mind, there are only two factors that need to be there for widespread adoption: the price needs to come down, and the battery or other storage medium needs to just disappear into the background of in-home electricity usage. Most people will just want to see a lower bill without any costs to their ease of use regarding electricity.
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jhallenworld大约 10 年前
Push a train up a hill to store energy. Yes, someone is really doing this:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.aresnorthamerica.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.aresnorthamerica.com&#x2F;</a>
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nine_k大约 10 年前
Let&#x27;s calculate a bit.<p>&gt; <i>Most flow battery companies have $100 &#x2F; kwh capital cost as a target</i><p>With typical power plants generating e.g. 500 MW 24 hours long, the storage is going to be 100000 $&#x2F;MWh * 500 MW = 50M&#x2F;hour. If we assume that a solar plant generates power for 12 hours, and the batteries feed the consumers for 12 more hours, it&#x27;s going to be 600M for <i>storage alone</i>. The solar power plant with a peak power well above 500MW (to feed the day load + charge the batteries for the night) will cost you extra.<p>I still think that a Thorium molten salt reactor is a strong contender in a price landscape like this. (It also has a nice ability to burn our current stockpiles of radioactive waste from Uranium reactors.)
D_Alex大约 10 年前
One thing to add: Electric cars. They come with energy storage in-built.<p>By rough calculation, if 10% of cars in my city (Perth, Australia) were electric, their batteries could supply the entire city&#x27;s demand for duration of about 2 hours (or 10% of demand for 20 hours etc). This could work really well for demand balancing and peak shaving - overcapacity (which in Perth is massive, since the policy is to maintain supply even on extremely hot days, when demand shoots up and generation capacity goes down) and spinning reserve could be tremendously reduced.<p>I suspect some good software and a little hardware will be needed to account for the owners&#x27; needs optimally.
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notlisted大约 10 年前
Silly question perhaps… If alternative energy sources in combination with batteries increase independence from those who supply it, and reduced demand during peak times allows rates to fall, isn&#x27;t there a point where investments in infrastructure (or maintenance thereof) will stop being profitable, etc etc.
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mrfusion大约 10 年前
Random idea, if batteries are cheap enough could we charge them up and ship them on trains back forth instead of building high voltage transmission lines?
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mrfusion大约 10 年前
If utilities install these batteries near the last mile, would that also cut down on power outages during storms?
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aharonovich大约 10 年前
How lucky for me, I&#x27;ve just finished doing the same back of the envelope calculation for using a home storage system that would take advantage of Time-Of-Use rates, my conclusion was opposite - when he is concentrating on the gap between ~34c peak rate to ~15c minimum rate I&#x27;ve chosen to focus on the gap between the minimum rate to the ~19c standard tiered rate. the 3-4 cent difference means that you can only save, at the maximum, 3-4 cents per kwh consumed your storage. And storage is very far from this range. Nonetheless, I&#x27;m still very optimistic about other uses of storage and I am confident that I would find the right company to short, maybe a company that builds peaker plants.
lancewiggs大约 10 年前
Shocked at the amount of support for nuclear here. Use the data - how much solar, wind and nuclear capacity had been installed in the last 5 years?<p>Nuclear is not getting cheaper, not significantly, so what does this imply for the next five years? The answers are obvious, and non nuclear.<p>New Zealand, where I live, declared itself nuclear free in 1984. We are currently generating 70-80% of our electricity using renewable&#x2F;low&#x2F;zero emission methods.
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rjurney大约 10 年前
If you haven&#x27;t read Ramez&#x27;s books, you&#x27;re missing out. Check out Nexus, and then the sequels. Without a doubt, the best sci-fi I&#x27;ve read in a long time<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Nexus_%28Ramez_Naam_novel%29" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Nexus_%28Ramez_Naam_novel%29</a>
mauricemir大约 10 年前
Interesting though the Compressed Air storage could have some &quot;interesting&quot; failure modes.<p>Back when I was an Engineering Technician my thermo fluids lecturer commented that if the main reservoir for the labs compressed air system burst it would flatten the entire lab block.
fokinsean大约 10 年前
I don&#x27;t know about that.<p>&#x2F;r&#x2F;april30th2015
kumarski大约 10 年前
There&#x27;s still more ROI for humanity in changing our consumption behavior.<p>There&#x27;s resource limitations on lithium ion, lest we run into the same scenario.
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melling大约 10 年前
Got any real numbers to back that up? I&#x27;m guessing that it just feels good to bang on your chest and make that call. The reality is probably a lot different. How are all the megacities going to get enough solar and wind power, for example? Tokyo, NYC, Mexico City, Shanghai, etc. all running from solar? How big will the grid need to be to power NYC? Anyway, I&#x27;d love to see a deeper analysis and less chest pounding.
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