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DEF CON 13 – Paul Graham, Inequality and Risk (2005) [video]

37 点作者 greenjellybean大约 10 年前

10 条评论

fullwedgewhale大约 10 年前
The problem I have with the talk is that he&#x27;s focusing on one narrow part of the economy and then using that as a proxy for the whole economy. It&#x27;s also obvious he doesn&#x27;t look at some of the negatives related to income inequality. For example, high levels of income inequality correlate with high levels of political instability and high levels of corruption. Countries with high income inequality are rarely gleaming examples of economic efficiency. They&#x27;re often not very nice places to live. Countries with low levels of inequality (like much of Northern Europe) are nice places to live.<p>As Paul understands that we&#x27;re all connected (you can&#x27;t pull on one part of the bed-sheet with out pulling on the rest of the bed-sheet), he hasn&#x27;t made the connection that if one side of the bed is dragged into being a shit-hole, the rest of the bed will eventually be a shit-hole, as it&#x27;s all connected. In South America, for example, kidnapping is such a huge problem. The effect is to make these places less nice for the wealthy as well as the poor.<p>A lot of times the policies that reduce inequality aren&#x27;t kill all the start-ups&#x2F;crazy take all the money from rich people policies. Often their simple things that don&#x27;t take a ton of money like head start funding, lower the cost of post-secondary education and training, and providing certain basic services like health care. What the US has done is to look at balancing the budget by reducing taxes on the very wealthy (upward pressure on income inequality) while taking money from programs that reduce equality.<p>There&#x27;s a belief that most people who are poor are not working. Actually, many of them work quite hard. But washing machines work hard, too. Simply working hard doesn&#x27;t get you ahead. In some cases there&#x27;s a fair amount of luck involved. I sometimes look at the startup economy a little bit like pulling the slot lever. You can do everything right, but a lot of things still have to go well (some of which are outside of your control) before you cash out. Paul rightfully calls this risk, meaning that it&#x27;s not guaranteed that an investor will get his pay out and it&#x27;s far from guaranteed a founder will get rich. But it&#x27;s bizarre to think keeping the US from sliding into an economic hell-hole will somehow destroy that slot-machine economy.
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josinalvo大约 10 年前
I think PG&#x27;s argument does not work in two points. He seems to say that<p>1. Reducing the potential payoff kills startups (and)<p>2. To <i></i>reduce<i></i> inequality, you have to reduce the payoff of startups<p>2 is false: there are many ways to reduce inequality that dont affect startups. Take inherited inequality: you can tax inheritance, you can make college more affordable (by, say, using the inheritance tax), you can tax only big companies, or real estate. All these things reduce inequality. If inequelity is bad, we might fight it in some places, and still tolerate the existence of &quot;the next bill gates&quot;<p>1. is weird. I dont know for you, but for me, there is a clear upper ceiling of incentive: I&#x27;d work hard for a million, but not so much for my eleventh million. I am not sure founders are just multiplying P(sucess) and payoff. (VCs might be, though)
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sparkzilla大约 10 年前
For those looking for more talks and interviews, I compiled Paul Graham, Sam Altman and Jessica Livingston&#x27;s videos (as well as many by other VCs) into timelines on my site: [1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;newslines.org&#x2F;paul-graham&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;newslines.org&#x2F;paul-graham&#x2F;</a> [2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;newslines.org&#x2F;sam-altman&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;newslines.org&#x2F;sam-altman&#x2F;</a> [3] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;newslines.org&#x2F;jessica-livingston&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;newslines.org&#x2F;jessica-livingston&#x2F;</a>
flarets大约 10 年前
Interesting talk. Some parts of the reasoning that might need work:<p>&quot;if there was no possibility to get rich, there would be no startups&quot;.<p>Does not explain patronage, i.e. people investing in people for reasons other than getting rich.<p>&quot;without start-ups, there would be slower rates of technological growth&quot;.<p>Prizes, like the Ansari X-Prize, is another model that drives innovation, it can be viewed as a low-risk investment.
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rememberlenny大约 10 年前
This talk is from August 2005.<p>Essay on PG&#x27;s website here: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.paulgraham.com&#x2F;inequality.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.paulgraham.com&#x2F;inequality.html</a>
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orbitur大约 10 年前
Is there a transcript of this? The audio has too many clicks &amp; clacks that are a much higher volume than the human voices.
coderzach大约 10 年前
I think the disincentive to risk only exist when it&#x27;s a tax on income or capital gain, you could also implement a wealth tax[0], which wouldn&#x27;t have this problem.<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Wealth_tax" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Wealth_tax</a>
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restalis大约 10 年前
45s from here:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=RpD_Sz_ZWPk&amp;t=775" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=RpD_Sz_ZWPk&amp;t=775</a><p>explains the most of it for a bureaucratic politician. The rules one make in society will tick (in the eye of the common folk) the balance for risk taking. Most of Europe is plagued by this social condition that Mr. Graham describes in here.<p>Addition: The scope of Paul Graham&#x27;s talk is only of relating the economic risk-taking with inequality, but it would pay to give a deeper thought to the company-founding phenomenon. Economic ground poisoning (through patent trolling or regulation hammering) is also a very important factor to it, and that is something that can be fixed also only on political levels.
vonklaus大约 10 年前
Good talk. Terrible audio.
happyscrappy大约 10 年前
&quot;If you actually want to compress the gap between rich and poor, you have to push down on the top as well as pushing up on the bottom.<p>How do you push down on the top? You could try to decrease the productivity of the people who make the most money: make the best surgeons operate with their left hands, force popular actors to overeat, and so on. But this approach is hard to implement. The only practical solution is to let people do the best work they can, and then (either by taxation or by limiting what they can charge) to confiscate whatever you deem to be surplus.<p>So let&#x27;s be clear what reducing economic inequality means. It is identical with taking money from the rich.<p>When you transform a mathematical expression into another form, you often notice new things. So it is in this case. Taking money from the rich turns out to have consequences one might not foresee when one phrases the same idea in terms of &quot;reducing inequality.&quot;<p>The problem is, risk and reward have to be proportionate. A bet with only a 10% chance of winning has to pay more than one with a 50% chance of winning, or no one will take it. So if you lop off the top of the possible rewards, you thereby decrease people&#x27;s willingness to take risks.<p>Transposing into our original expression, we get: decreasing economic inequality means decreasing the risk people are willing to take.<p>There are whole classes of risks that are no longer worth taking if the maximum return is decreased. One reason high tax rates are disastrous is that this class of risks includes starting new companies.&quot;<p>Paul Graham
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