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Ask HN: What country would you lend money to?

12 点作者 CulturalNgineer超过 15 年前
Many nations besides the United States are seeking to borrow funds by issuing bonds.<p>While in the past the U.S. has always been a "preferred" borrower because of a world "dollar standard" and a presumption of good governance there are many indications that this perception is changing.<p>With so much of our exploding debt being short-term any fall off in a willingness of others to finance it could be disastrous for our future.<p>If you were one of those bond buyers (and being broke I'm definitely not a bond buyer, but very interested in our future)...<p>What country would YOU lend to?<p>Are we still the best "bet" on the planet? Are other nations "tied" to us in ways that prevent them for NOT lending to us?<p>Or should we all start hoarding stocks of non-perishable foods?

9 条评论

mdasen超过 15 年前
The uncomfortability with the dollar right now seems to be a combination of a short memory and political sentiment.<p>The Euro has been strong over the majority of the past decade. Yes, less than 10 years time. Remember that from 1999 to 2002, the Euro was falling with decent consistency.<p>The US Dollar has been a stable currency for a lot longer and the US economy has done well for a long time.<p>People are worried about debt, but it might not be that much of a risk. If the banks pay back the money that was lent to them, the treasury can take that money and destroy it and there's no expansion of the money supply beyond a short stop-gap. Likewise, if they pay back the money with interest (and there's little chance this won't be the case), the US government can gain funds as well as not expanding the money supply.<p>The perception has changed a little, but not drastically with those devoid of political intent. Sure, part of it is that the Bush administration played loose with the currency and, in fact, sometimes argued for a weaker dollar and the current wars make the US look less of a good investment, but part of it is definitely political. I mean, if you're China you sure want to create the perception that the US won't be the continuing standard. If nothing else, it's like having two parts suppliers even if you don't consider one of them to be a serious option - you can always use them as a negotiating chip with the supplier you do consider a serious option even if it's a hollow threat. Likewise, many European politicians would like to consider their power rising; Iranian officials love to blast the US; people opposed to the wars want to play the debt card; etc. And some of it is legitimate, but some of it is FUD. I mean, if I came on here and said, "Linux just doesn't do graphics" there's a bit of truth there in that graphics card drivers might not come out as quickly or be as optimized, but it's not like you can't have a nice GUI or use the GIMP or whatnot, but I can say "truthful" things that are completely misleading because I want to advance an anti-Linux agenda. And the same is true here, one can say that the treasury (doubled|tripled|whatnot) the debt and not talk about how most of that is being repaid and it doesn't look like there's much of a chance it won't be repaid. It's the "truth", but it's still misleading. And if you have an agenda, those truths are your friend. Again, not to say that there aren't problems, just to say that some people might be pushing those problems out of proportion to advance an untrue agenda.<p>Oh, and one thing is important to note: government debt doesn't need to be financed. It does in the long-run, but not in the short term. A government with its own currency has the option to print money. When a government just prints money, it can cause inflation since if each dollar is a fraction of the economy as a whole and there are now more dollars, each dollar is a smaller fraction of the economy. Now, I say "can" there, because there isn't some automatic mechanism - it's based on people's perceptions. In fact, inflation can happen even without an expansion of the money supply simply based on people's fear that inflation should be happening.<p>And it looks like the "exploding debt" will only be short term as many of the banks have already repaid their loans.<p>You can try betting on hoarding food or whatnot, but you're most likely going to turn out wrong. It's not that other nations are "tied" to us so much as the US is still a very good economy. Plus, US debt isn't so bad. As of 2008, it was at ~38% of GDP. Compare that with Japan at ~172% of GDP and you can see that many countries do live with a lot more debt (Italy 105%; Greece 97%; Egypt 86%; Israel 76%; Canada 63%; France 68%; Germany 66%. . .). And as long as all the TARP money comes back to the government, there hasn't been any real expansion of the debt - it was a short term loan that looks like it'll be repaid quickly if it hasn't been repaid already.<p>Now, there are challenges. Rising healthcare and third level education costs in the US don't look good for long-term competitiveness, but one of those looks to be on the docket at present and it's easy to forget many of the problems that European countries have when one isn't resident there. But the US economy is far from a tale of doom. Challenges will be ever present - what matters is whether you address them or not and whether you do so consistently. And the US has faced up to challenges over a long period of time.<p>//That said, bonds are a terrible investment as you can usually get better rates in a CD from a bank.
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dkersten超过 15 年前
Honestly, if I had enough money, I'd invest - in return for citizenship (some countries do this) - in a country that meets (as close as possible) the following criteria:<p>1. Isn't in the EU<p>2. Isn't the US or too closely tied to the US<p>3. Isn't too closely tied to the UK<p>4. Isn't terribly unstable, unpredictable or currently at war<p>That doesn't leave me with much, I guess... though then again, I'm doing this for the citizenship, not the investment, so maybe my criteria isn't the most useful ;-)
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fauigerzigerk超过 15 年前
I would not lend USD to the US. I would lend euros to the US but they don't want any. If my income stream was US based I might lend money to the US in the form of TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).<p>The US is not going to formally default on its debt. What they are going to try is to inflate the debt away and TIPS protect you against that if your income is in USD.
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amalcon超过 15 年前
I'm not unbiased enough to decide if some other country would be a better bet than the U.S. Still, I suspect the top outside choices would be India and Japan, in that order. Japan is miles ahead of the rest of the world in robotics, which means that if the price of Chinese labor ever increases, they own manufacturing. They still have a piece of the pie, even with rock-bottom labor prices, which says something.<p>India is even more interesting because there are a lot of educated people, but still very low living costs. Early America is the last time there's been a combination like that.
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fauigerzigerk超过 15 年前
Yes there are countries that are tied to the US in the sense that they are forced to keep lending. In fact this is the most striking aspect of the current crisis.<p>The deal is this: China lends money to the US and US consumers buy chinese exports for that money. I'm not quite sure what will happen when this scheme ends. It may be ending right now so we will see.
stonemetal超过 15 年前
As the US has recently demonstrated all of the industrialized nations are so interconnected that a major failure in one is a major failure in all of them. If there is any country I would consider loaning money to it would be the ones that did the best in this past mess. From there I would have to look at the countries fundamentals.
cmars232超过 15 年前
I would invest in a sovereign not tied to a physical piece of land, because it would be an interesting sociopolitial experiment. Like Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong in Snow Crash.
rimantas超过 15 年前
Norway.
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jayliew超过 15 年前
You have money?