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Airbnb and the Problem of Data

43 点作者 sdabdoub将近 10 年前

3 条评论

spenrose将近 10 年前
Great piece. Quotation #1:<p>&quot;Cities need to understand whether short-term rental inventory is expanding faster than they can produce housing stock and whether that is impacting the availability of housing to long-term residents. Put another way: you would not A&#x2F;B test changes to a software platform or interface without data, so why would you ask city policy makers to A&#x2F;B test regulatory changes in the dark when it comes to the “platform” of their finite physical space?&quot;
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fraserharris将近 10 年前
The author makes an error here: &quot;But it’s problematic to price breakeven rates off of market-rate rents, because only 10 percent of the city’s housing stock is market-rate.&quot;<p>At the time the landlord has the decision of whether to rent out their unit or put it on Airbnb they will get market rate for it. Rent control limits <i>future</i> increases in rent. Illegally evicting a tenant has a similar financial pressure for market rate.
geebee将近 10 年前
Data would be really useful.<p>Everyone has an opinion about airbnb. Here&#x27;s my big worry.<p>San Francisco&#x27;s population of children has plummeted in my lifetime (I grew up in SF in the 70s). In this time, I think it has gone from about 22% to a current rate of 14% or so.<p>I guess it&#x27;s just important to me that SF continue to be a place people are from, rather than a place where young people move prior to having families, or (increasingly) a place where empty nesters move and enjoy the city after having families.<p>Here&#x27;s the thing, I consider this to be a very economically vulnerable stretch of life. I have two kids, in SFUSD, and I&#x27;m starting to see just how colossal a disadvantage a family with two kids would be in a bidding war against someone who intends to put the extra bedrooms in a SFH or a 3 bedroom apartment on airbnb instead.<p>It&#x27;s no secret that housing is in short supply in SF, and that the price of a house or apartment in SF reflects what the highest bidder is able to pay. It&#x27;s also probably not surprising that kids are very expensive. A two income family (pretty tough to live in SF if you aren&#x27;t) means daycare - and daycare costs, conservatively, over $2,000 a month per kid. Even if they&#x27;re in SFUSD (&quot;free&quot;), after care at school and summer camps will run you $8,000+ if you&#x27;re doing things the inexpensive way.<p>Now, imagine that a family with two kids now has to compete against a bidder who plans to put the &quot;spare&quot; bedrooms on airbnb, and who factors that into the bid. The family has two very expensive, non-revenue generating children. The airbnb buyer has a massive advantage here, and I see it as another factor that could potentially put massive new pressures on an already collapsing population of families with children. It could also reduce turnover - someone who no longer needs the extra bedrooms and might have in the past downsized (opening up a SFH for a new family) now rents the bedrooms out full time on airbnb.<p>Sure, these problems could have existed with permanent, long term tenants, but I do think that it was less likely. Airbnb definitely makes it far easier and more profitable to do this - this is one big reason why the company is so large and profitable itself.<p>Is this happening? I don&#x27;t know, I don&#x27;t have the data. Until then, it&#x27;s just a fear, though not (in my opinion, obviously) an unfounded one. But if they company won&#x27;t open up the data and recognize the possible danger, my guess is that the public will support strict regulations.