Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

I like the general idea — gamblers can do useful work for society — but one area that needs improvement is the kind of things that the participants will be betting on.<p>&quot;IBM wants to offer the minimum amount that the candidate will accept,&quot; however the gamblers are not asked to figure that out, instead the &quot;entire wager pool is awarded to the Turks who had the closest answers [to what IBM actually offered]&quot;.<p>Thus the smart gambler tries to figure out not what the candidate would accept, but what IBM is likely to offer. At this point the prediction market does <i>not</i> predict what the candidate will accept, but what IBM will offer.<p>One might be able to construct a prediction market where the gamblers incentive is to identify the lowest number the candidate would accept, but this is not it.

I know where the name comes from but still, the word Turk being used as the name of the unit workforce while making automation by using mass manual labor is a bit inconvenient. We already have an ambiguity with the name of our country in the English language, give us a break :)

If one can make this work this would be huge. One could offer casino style games at a house edge of 0% (house edge = the amount that the house wins on average on every bet). This would not only be a super compelling value proposition to gamblers, it would be a huge step towards eliminating problem gambling: A gambling addict that plays at a 0% house edge would not loose money in the long run.<p>I run a small bitcoin casino called fastbets.io. We should talk to see if there is a potential for a collaboration (feel free to email henry@fastbets.io).

The hard part is making work into a game. I think Michael and Jane Banks would agree this is the foremost reason they prefer Mary to other possible nannies.

Something like this could be extremely valuable inside an organization. A lot of very valuable knowledge is locked up by employees with no incentive to reveal it.

Turning the world&#x27;s casinos into massively parallel crowd-sourced processing centers is a great idea.

&gt; These solutions provide no value to anyone.<p>They provide entertainment value sometimes, and for winners they provide monetary value. This is like saying watching a movie or playing football has no value. The particularities of the game may create the value. E.g., poker is a well balanced game.

The first organization to figure out how to make a proper free-market prediction market platform will make a killing.<p>Casinos seem like a perfect way to make it happen as they already have special regulatory exemption for a transaction type BB doesn&#x27;t like.

Something similar but without the gambling aspect has been done before:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;ESP_game" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;ESP_game</a>

One potential problem is that instead of assessing problem objectively, since the payout is based on &quot;most popular&quot; answer, people will choose which answer they expect to be most popular, rather than the one they necessarily believe in. This drives down the value of the crowdsourced data - because it&#x27;s not real &quot;insight&quot;, is already tainted by the very gamification you&#x27;re looking to monetise!

BTW, Casinos are forbidden in Turkey.

Theoretically, is this idea possible?<p>1) Make a casino with slot machines&#x2F;etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different)<p>2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead.<p>3) Casino can take 3.5% for setting everything up.<p>What would make this impossible?